In a development with implications for China's work force and economic growth, a new study says more than 25% of adults in the country are overweight or obese and that the number could double over the next 20 years.

    The report, based on data collected from 20,000 patients in China over the past 15 years, says obesity has increased 1.2% a year among men in that time -- higher than the rate for adult men in the U.S., U.K. and Australia.

    With the population at 1.3 billion, that means an additional 11 million Chinese adults are becoming overweight or obese every year. In addition, 12 million to 14 million adults are becoming at risk for diabetes and hypertension annually, says study author Barry Popkin, director of the obesity center and professor of global nutrition at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

    'When you have this many people becoming diabetic and hypertensive, you think about the health-care costs and it's pretty staggering,' says Dr. Popkin. The study is set to be published today in the health policy journal Health Affairs.

    The study suggests that the problem may be accelerating. And the reasons for the rise in obesity isn't because of increased consumption of fast food or other Western foods in China, Dr. Popkin says. Rather, improving living standards mean that growing numbers of Chinese can now afford vegetable oil, beef and dairy-food sources that until recently had been too costly. A more sedentary lifestyle for many Chinese plays an important role as well.

    Obesity-related costs are likely to lead not only to drastic increases in direct medical costs, but also to indirect costs like decreased worker productivity and absenteeism.

    Health-care costs could also have implications for companies looking to invest in China. Many companies provide medical care for workers, and thus they could end up footing much of the bill for obesity-related costs, Dr. Popkin says.

    Those costs could prompt companies to invest in less-costly markets, such as Vietnam, and ultimately slow the Chinese economy. 'U.S. labor costs skyrocketed and people are moving away from investing here,' says Dr. Popkin. 'It's the same issue in China.'

    一項(xiàng)新的研究稱，中國(guó)有超過(guò)四分之一的成人超重或患有肥胖癥，這個(gè)數(shù)字在未來(lái)20年里還可能增加一倍。這種變化可能對(duì)中國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生影響。

    這份報(bào)告是根據(jù)過(guò)去15年里從中國(guó)2萬(wàn)名患者中搜集的數(shù)據(jù)編寫的。報(bào)告稱，在此期間成年男性中的肥胖癥患者每年平均增長(zhǎng)1.2%，這個(gè)增幅超過(guò)了美國(guó)、英國(guó)和澳大利亞。

    中國(guó)共有13億人口，這就意味著中國(guó)成年人中每年新增超重或肥胖癥人口1,100萬(wàn)人。此外，這項(xiàng)研究的作者、北卡羅納大學(xué)肥胖癥中心主任和全球營(yíng)養(yǎng)學(xué)教授巴里•波普金(Barry Popkin)表示，中國(guó)每年還有1,200萬(wàn)至1,400萬(wàn)成年人存在患有糖尿病和高血壓的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

    波普金說(shuō)，當(dāng)許多人身患糖尿病和高血壓時(shí)，你就不能不考慮到醫(yī)療成本，而且這個(gè)數(shù)額可能非常巨大。這份研究報(bào)告將發(fā)表在周二出版的美國(guó)《保健事務(wù)》(Health Affairs)雜志上。

    研究顯示，這個(gè)問(wèn)題可能還會(huì)加速發(fā)展。波普金稱，肥胖人群增加的原因不是由于中國(guó)人消費(fèi)的快餐食品或其它西式食品的增加，而是由于生活水平的提高讓越來(lái)越多的中國(guó)人現(xiàn)在能夠買得起不久前還顯得過(guò)于昂貴的植物油、牛肉和奶制品了。許多中國(guó)人久坐不動(dòng)的生活方式也起到了重要的作用。

    與肥胖有關(guān)的問(wèn)題不僅可能導(dǎo)致直接醫(yī)療費(fèi)用的大幅增加，還會(huì)產(chǎn)生員工生產(chǎn)率下降和缺勤等間接成本。

    醫(yī)療成本也是有意在中國(guó)投資的公司應(yīng)該考慮的問(wèn)題。波普金說(shuō)，許多公司都為工人提供醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)，因此它們與員工肥胖問(wèn)題有關(guān)的開支可能增加。

    這些開支可能促使公司投資于越南等成本較低的市場(chǎng)，最終導(dǎo)致中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩。波普金說(shuō)，美國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力成本大幅上升，人們已越來(lái)越不愿意在美國(guó)投資。中國(guó)同樣面臨這個(gè)問(wèn)題。