In recent years, a small army of happiness gurus has lined up to proclaim the ills of modern society, and its failure to make us feel better. We have more money, say some, but family life has eroded. We live longer, but crime has risen. Some have even blamed affluence itself, arguing that the dizzying range of lifestyle options that we now confront frustrates the pursuit of happiness.

Yet contrary to the assertions of pessimists, newly released data, recently published in an article with colleagues from Jacobs University Bremen and the University of Michigan, shows that today's world is a happier one*. From 1981 to the present, more than 350,000 people from 90 countries were asked about their happiness and their satisfaction with life as a whole. Among the 52 countries for which at least a decade of data is available, reported well-being rose in 40 cases, and fell in only 12. The average percentage of people who said they were “very happy” increased by almost seven points.

How is it that the world is getting happier? In the words of Thucydides, the secret of happiness is freedom. In each survey respondents were also asked to rate their sense of free choice in life. In all but three countries where perceived freedom rose, subjective well-being rose also. A chart, produced by the authors, shows how these increases in free choice and subjective well-being are strikingly related.

The world in which we live today is unquestionably a free one. For the first time in history, most of the world is governed democratically, the rights of women and minorities are widely acknowledged, and people, ideas and investment can cross borders. Since the study began in 1981, dozens of middle-income countries have democratised, relieving many from fear of repression: every country making a transition from authoritarian rule to democracy shows a rising sense of free choice. In addition, there has been a sharp rise in the acceptance of gender equality and alternative lifestyles. Countries where this revolution has been most pronounced, such as Canada and Sweden, continue to show rising well-being.

Arguably, no region has experienced this transformation as rapidly as eastern Europe. In the space of two decades, several countries that were members of the Soviet bloc have become members of the European Union, with new freedoms to travel, work and live as never before imaginable. Not only has the proportion claiming to be “very happy” risen in every country except Serbia and Belarus, but this trend has been wholly driven by the younger generation. Among eastern Europeans aged 15-24, the proportion saying they were “very happy” was 9 per cent at the start of the 1990s, roughly the same as in other age groups. By 2006, this proportion had more than doubled, and steady rises were also evident among those in their 30s and 40s. Country after country in the study – Albania, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine – exhibits this trend.Belarus stands out as an exception in changes in happiness by age (the young are still as miserable as in 1990, and the elderly only a little better off).

So if the world is becoming happier, what are the implications? First, that the expansion of political and social freedoms over the past quarter of a century is vindicated. The open world in which we live is a fundamentally happier one. This may not surprise those who have argued in favour of a liberal global order. It will undoubtedly cause puzzlement and consternation among those who yearn for the false certainties of an earlier era.

Second, the results may engender caution towards attempts to engineer happiness through public policy. The happy countries include social democracies such as Sweden and Denmark, and more laisser faire economies such as Australia and the US. What they have in common are not their policies but institutions: democracy, rule of law and social tolerance. People are largely capable of engineering their own happiness when given the means to do so.

Third, the link from free choice to rising happiness suggests that the appropriate benchmark of develop-ment is not income per capita, but individual freedoms and capabilities. This is the human development perspective associated with Amartya Sen, the Nobel laureate. While income and well-being are closely correlated at early stages of development, once the threat of starvation recedes, social and political freedom appears to be as important.

Though the past 25 years have brought a happier world, there is no certainty that the next 25 will continue to do so. Many low and middle-income countries have experienced exceptionally high rates of growth, ranging from 4 to 11 per cent, while richer countries have undergone falling work hours and social liberation. There is no guarantee that either will persist indefinitely.

Meanwhile democratisation is a one-shot occurrence, and the collapse of communism is in the past. Today, there are as many countries that appear to be sliding into soft authoritarianism and state failure as there are countries that are becoming consolidated democratic cultures, while the future of the global economic order is itself in jeopardy. It would be a huge irony if the benefits of liberal institutions for human happiness were to become evident precisely at the moment when those gains are most at risk.

近年來，一小批倡導(dǎo)幸福的大師們接二連三地揭露現(xiàn)代社會(huì)的痼疾，指責(zé)現(xiàn)代社會(huì)沒能讓人們感覺生活得更好。一些人表示，我們有了更多的錢，但家庭生活卻不及從前。我們的壽命更長了，但犯罪行為有所增加。一些人甚至譴責(zé)富裕本身，他們辯稱，如今我們在生活方式上面對著令人眼花繚亂的選擇，這妨礙了我們對幸福的追求。

然而，與悲觀主義者的主張相反，不來梅雅各布大學(xué)(Jacobs University Bremen)和密歇根大學(xué)(University of Michigan) 最近發(fā)表的一篇論文中的新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，當(dāng)今的世界幸福程度更高*。從1981年到現(xiàn)在，來自90個(gè)國家的逾35萬人被問及其幸福感及對生活總體的滿意度。在至少擁有10年數(shù)據(jù)的52個(gè)國家中，40個(gè)國家顯示幸福感上升，而只有12個(gè)國家幸福感下降。稱自己“非常幸福”的平均人數(shù)增加了近7%。

世界是如何變得更幸福的呢？按照希臘歷史學(xué)家修西得底斯(Thucydides)的話說，快樂的秘決在于自由。每一份調(diào)查中，也要求被調(diào)查者對其生活中自由選擇方面的感覺進(jìn)行評定。除了3個(gè)國家以外，其它所有認(rèn)為自由感上升的國家，主觀幸福感也增強(qiáng)了。作者設(shè)計(jì)的圖表表明，自由選擇增多與主觀幸福感增強(qiáng)之間存在著驚人的相關(guān)性。

我們今天生活的世界無疑是一個(gè)自由的世界。有史以來第一次，世界上大多數(shù)國家都施行民主體制，女性和少數(shù)民族的權(quán)益得到了廣泛認(rèn)同，人才、理年和投資可以跨境流動(dòng)。自1981年該研究啟動(dòng)以來，許多中等收入水平的國家都已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了民主化，從而消除了許多人對于受到鎮(zhèn)壓的畏懼：所有從獨(dú)裁統(tǒng)治轉(zhuǎn)向民主體制的國家，自由選擇的感覺都不斷增強(qiáng)。此外，對于性別平等和另類生活方式的認(rèn)同程度也有了明顯提升。在此種革命最引人矚目的國家，如加拿大和瑞典，幸福感都在持續(xù)攀升。

誠然，東歐地區(qū)經(jīng)歷了最為迅速的變革。在短短20年的時(shí)間里，一些曾經(jīng)是前蘇聯(lián)陣營成員的國家，如今已變成了歐盟(EU)成員國，擁有了旅行、工作、生活等方面的新自由，這在以往是不可想象的。除塞爾維亞和白俄羅斯以外，不僅所有國家宣稱“很快樂”者的比例上升，而且這種趨勢總體上受到了年輕一代的推動(dòng)。90年代初，在15至24歲的東歐人中，稱自己“很快樂”的人的比例為9%，與其它年齡段的比例大致相同。到2006年，這一比例已經(jīng)上升了一倍以上，同時(shí)在30和40歲年齡段中，這一比例也明顯出現(xiàn)了穩(wěn)定增長。此項(xiàng)研究中的一個(gè)又一個(gè)國家——阿爾巴尼亞、保加利亞、波斯尼亞、克羅地亞、捷克共和國、立陶宛、摩爾多瓦、羅馬尼亞、俄羅斯、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亞、烏克蘭——都表現(xiàn)出了這種趨勢。在按照年齡段分類的幸福感變化方面，白俄羅斯的表現(xiàn)與眾不同（該國年輕人仍像1990年一樣痛苦，而年長一些的人則只是略有改善）。

那么，如果世界變得更加幸福，這暗示了什么呢?首先，這證明過去25年間政治和社會(huì)自由的擴(kuò)展是正確的。從本質(zhì)上說，我們生活的這個(gè)開放世界更加幸福了。這可能不會(huì)令那些維護(hù)全球自由格局的人感到驚訝。但毋庸置疑，這會(huì)令那些渴望延續(xù)舊日錯(cuò)誤的人們感到困惑和驚恐。

其次，這一結(jié)果可能會(huì)引發(fā)人們對于通過公共政策操縱幸福做法的戒備。幸福國家包括瑞典、丹麥等社會(huì)民主政體，以及澳大利亞和美國等自由主義經(jīng)濟(jì)體。它們的共同點(diǎn)不在于政策，而在于制度：民主、法治和社會(huì)寬容度。被賦予這些手段之后，人們很大程度上能夠掌控自己的幸福。

第三，自由選擇與不斷增強(qiáng)的幸福感之間的相關(guān)性表明，衡量發(fā)展的恰當(dāng)基準(zhǔn)不是人均收入，而是個(gè)人自由和能力。這是與諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)獎(jiǎng)得主阿瑪?shù)賮?bull;森(Amartya Sen)觀點(diǎn)一致的人類發(fā)展觀。盡管收入和幸福在發(fā)展初期階段密切相關(guān)，但一旦饑餓的威脅減退，社會(huì)及政治自由似乎就顯得同樣重要。

雖然過去的25年已帶給我們一個(gè)更加幸福的世界，但并不能確定今后25年這種狀況還能持續(xù)下去。許多中低收入國家經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)了異乎尋常的高增長（增長率從4%到11%不等），而較為富裕的國家工作時(shí)間不斷減少，同時(shí)進(jìn)行了社會(huì)自由化變革。誰也無法保證這兩種情況會(huì)一直持續(xù)下去。

與此同時(shí)，民主化是一種一次性事件，而共產(chǎn)主義的崩潰已成為過去。而今，那些似乎要滑入軟式獨(dú)裁主義和政權(quán)失敗的國家數(shù)量，與正成為穩(wěn)固民主文化的國家一樣多，而全球經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序的未來本身也處于危險(xiǎn)之中。如果致力于人類幸福的自由制度的益處，恰恰在它們面臨最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之際展現(xiàn)出來，這將是一個(gè)莫大的諷刺。