On the evening of Nov. 15, President Barack Obama, the youthful leader of one of the world's youngest countries, begins his first visit to China, among the world's most ancient societies. Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, have much to discuss. Nukes in Iran and North Korea. China's surging military spending. Trade imbalances. Climate change.

    But the visit comes at an awkward moment for the U.S. China, despite its 5,000-year burden of history, has emerged as a dynamo of optimism, experimentation and growth. It has defied the global economic slump, and the sense that it's the world's ascendant power has never been stronger. The U.S., by contrast, seems suddenly older and frailer. America's national mood is still in a funk, its economy foundering, its red-vs.-blue politics as rancorous as ever. The U.S. may be one of the world's oldest capitalist countries and China one of the youngest, but you couldn't blame Obama if he leaned over to Hu at some point and asked, "What are you guys doing right?"

    Could the world's lone but weary superpower actually learn something from China? It's a politically incorrect question, of course. China is an authoritarian nation; its ruling Communist Party deals ruthlessly with any challenge to its hegemony. It remains, relatively speaking, a poor, developing country with huge problems to confront, massive corruption and environmental degradation being Nos. 1 and 1a. Still, this is a moment of humility for the U.S., and China is doing some important things right. If the U.S. were to ask the Chinese what it could learn from their example, it might gain some insight into what it's doing right and wrong. Here are five lessons from China's success story:

    1. Be Ambitious

    One day this summer, Sean Maloney, an executive vice president at Intel, was bouncing from one appointment to another in northeastern China, speeding along in a van traversing newly built highways. He gazed out at one of the world's biggest construction projects: a network of high-speed train lines - covering 10,000 miles （16,000 km） nationwide - that China is building. As far as the eye could see, there sat vast concrete support struts, one after another, exactly 246 ft. （75 m） apart. Each was full of steel cables and weighed about 800 tons. "We used to build stuff too," Maloney mused, unprompted. "But now it's NIMBY [not in my backyard] every time you try to do something. Here," he joked, "it's more like IMBY. There's stuff happening here, everywhere and always."

    It's not just NIMBYism that constrains the U.S. these days, of course. America is close to tapped out financially, with budget deficits this year and next exceeding $1 trillion and forecast to remain above $500 billion through 2019. But sometimes the country seems tapped out in terms of vision and investment for the future.

    Some economists believe that given its stage of development, China spends too much on expensive items like high-speed rail lines. But step back from the individual infrastructure projects and the debates about whether a given investment is necessary, and what's palpable in China is the sense of forward motion, of energy. No foreigner - at least not one I've met in five years of living here - even bothers denying it. And the Chinese take it for granted. When a brand-new six-lane highway opened in suburban Shanghai in October, Zhong Li Ping, who shuttles migrant workers to the city and back to their hometowns, said, "I don't know what took them so long." In truth, it took about two years - roughly the time it would take to get the environmental and other regulatory permits for a new highway in the U.S. If, that is, you could get them at all.

    There's no direct translation into Chinese of the phrase can-do spirit. But yong wang zhi qian probably suffices. Literally, it means "march forward courageously." China has - and has had for years now - a can-do spirit that's unmistakable. Americans know the phrase well. They invented it. It used to define them.

    Critics of the authoritarian Chinese government would say it's a system more accurately called "can do - or else." And they have a point. No one in the U.S. would argue that it should adopt China's dictatorial style of government. America doesn't need to displace tens of thousands of people in order to build a massive dam, as China did in Hubei province from 1994 to 2006. （The value of checks and balances is, in fact, among the many things China could learn from the U.S.） But you don't have to be a card-carrying communist to wonder how effectively the U.S. develops and executes ambitious projects. Ask James McGregor. He's a former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China and now a business consultant who divides his time between the two countries. "One key thing we can learn from China is setting goals, making plans and focusing on moving the country ahead as a nation," he says. "These guys have taken the old five-year plans and stood them on their head. Instead of deciding which factory gets which raw materials, which products are made, how they are priced and where they are sold, their planning now consists of 'How do we build a world-class silicon-chip industry in five years? How do we become a global player in car-manufacturing?'"

    ome of this is the natural arc of a huge, fast-growing country in the process of modernization. The U.S. in the late 19th century was nothing if not what Intel's Maloney would call an IMBY country. America was ambitious. There's no secret formula to help the nation get back its zeal for what it used to enthusiastically and sincerely call progress. But even though the U.S. is a mature, developed country, many economists believe it has shortchanged infrastructure investment for decades. It possibly did so again in this year's stimulus package. Just $144 billion of the $787 billion stimulus bill Congress passed earlier this year went to direct infrastructure spending. According to IHS Global Insight, an economic-consulting firm, U.S. spending on transportation infrastructure will actually decline overall in 2009 when state budgets are factored in - this at a time when the American Society of Civil Engineers contends that the U.S. should invest $1.6 trillion to upgrade its aging infrastructure over the next five years.

    When the economic crisis hit China late last year, by contrast, almost half of the emergency spending Beijing approved - $585 billion spread over two years - was directed at projects that accelerated China's massive infrastructure build-out. "That money went into the real economy very quickly," says economist Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

    But it's not just emergency spending on bridges, roads and high-speed rail networks that's helping growth in China. Patrick Tam, general partner at Tsing Capital, a venture-capital firm in Beijing, says the government is aggressively helping seed the development of new green-tech industries. An example: 13 of China's biggest cities will have all-electric bus fleets within five years. "China is eventually going to dominate the industry for electric vehicles," Tam says, "in part because the central government has both the vision and the financial wherewithal to make that happen." Tam, a graduate of MIT and the University of California, Berkeley, says he does deals in Beijing rather than Silicon Valley these days "because I believe this is where these new industries will really take shape. China's got the energy, the drive and the market to do it." Isn't that the sort of thing venture capitalists used to say about the U.S.?

    2. Education Matters

    On a recent Saturday afternoon, at a nice restaurant in central Shanghai, Liu Zhi-he sat fidgeting at the table, knowing that it was about time for him to leave. All around him sat relatives from an extended family that had gathered for a momentous occasion: the 90th birthday of Liu's great-grandmother Ling Shu Zhen, the still spry and elegant matriarch of a sprawling clan. But Liu had to leave because it was time for him to go to school. This Saturday, as he does every Saturday, Liu was attending two special classes. He takes a math tutorial, and he studies English.

    Liu is 7 years old.

    A lot of foreigners - and, indeed, a fair number of Chinese - believe that the obsession （and that's the right word） with education in China is overdone. The system stresses rote memorization. It drives kids crazy - aren't 7-year-olds supposed to have fun on Saturday afternoons? - and doesn't necessarily prepare them, economically speaking, for the job market or, emotionally speaking, for adulthood. Add to that the fact that the system, while incredibly competitive, has become corrupt.

    All true - and all, for the most part, beside the point. After decades of investment in an educational system that reaches the remotest peasant villages, the literacy rate in China is now over 90%. （The U.S.'s is 86%.） And in urban China, in particular, students don't just learn to read. They learn math. They learn science. As William McCahill, a former deputy chief of mission in the U.S. embassy in Beijing, says, "Fundamentally, they are getting the basics right, particularly in math and science. We need to do the same. Their kids are often ahead of ours."

    What the Chinese can teach are verities, home truths that have started to make a comeback in the U.S. but that could still use a push. The Chinese understand that there is no substitute for putting in the hours and doing the work. And more than anything else, the kids in China do lots of work. In the U.S., according to a 2007 survey by the Department of Education, 37% of 10th-graders in 2002 spent more than 10 hours on homework each week. That's not bad; in fact, it's much better than it used to be （in 1980 a mere 7% of kids did that much work at home each week）. But Chinese students, according to a 2006 report by the Asia Society, spend twice as many hours doing homework as do their U.S. peers.

    Part of the reason is family involvement. Consider Liu, the 7-year-old who had to leave the birthday party to go to Saturday school. Both his parents work, so when he goes home each day, his grandparents are there to greet him and put him through his after-school paces. His mother says simply, "This is normal. All his classmates work like this after school."

    Yes, big corporate employers in China will tell you the best students coming out of U.S. universities are just as bright as and, generally speaking, far more creative than their counterparts from China's élite universities. But the big hump in the bell curve - the majority of the school-age population - matters a lot for the economic health of countries. Simply put, the more smart, well-educated people there are - of the sort that hard work creates - the more economies （and companies） benefit. Remember what venture capitalist Tam said about China and the electric-vehicle industry. A single, relatively new company working on developing an electric-car battery - BYD Co. - employs an astounding 10,000 engineers.

    China, critics will point out, doesn't produce （at least not yet） many Nobel Prize winners. But don't think the basic educational competence of the workforce isn't a key factor in its having become the manufacturing workshop of the world. It isn't just about cheap labor; it's about smart labor. "Whether it's line workers or engineers, we're finding the candlepower of our employees here as good as or better than anywhere in the world," says Nick Reilly, a top executive at General Motors in Shanghai. "It all starts with the emphasis families put on the importance of education. That puts pressure on the government to deliver a decent system."

    And the Chinese government responds to that pressure in some intriguing ways. It insists that primary-school teachers in math and science have degrees in those subjects. （Less than half of eighth-grade math teachers in the U.S. majored in math.） There is a "master teacher" program nationwide that provides mentoring for younger teachers. Zhang Dianzhou, a professor emeritus of mathematics at East China Normal University in Shanghai who co-chaired a committee charged with redesigning high school mathematics programs across the country, says recent changes have begun to reflect more of a "real-world emphasis." Computer-science courses, for example, have been integrated into the math curriculum for high school students. And China is placing even more importance on teaching young students English and other foreign languages. If you think China's willingness to constantly fine-tune its educational system is not going to have much of an impact 20 years from now, there's a 7-year-old boy in Shanghai who'd be happy to discuss the issue with you. In English.

    3. Look After the Elderly

    it's hard to imagine two societies that deal with their elderly as differently as the U.S. and China. And I can vouch for that firsthand. My wife Junling is a Shanghai native, and last month for the first time we visited my father at a nursing home in the U.S. She was shaken by the experience and later told me, "You know, in China, it's a great shame to put a parent into a nursing home." In China the social contract has been straightforward for centuries: parents raise children; then the children care for the parents as they reach their dotage. When, for example, real estate developer Jiang Xiao Li and his wife recently bought a new, larger apartment in Shanghai, they did so in part because they know that in a few years, his parents will move in with them. Jiang's parents will help take care of Jiang's daughter, and as they age, Jiang and his wife will help take care of them. As China slowly develops a better-funded and more reliable social-security system for retirees - which it has begun - the economic necessity of generations living together will diminish a bit. But no one believes that as China gets richer, the cultural norm will shift too significantly.

    To a degree, of course, three generations living under one roof has long happened in the U.S., but in the 20th century, America became a particularly mobile and rootless society. It is hard to care for one's parents when they live three time zones away.

    Home care for the elderly will most likely make a comeback in the U.S. out of sheer economic necessity, however. The number of elderly Americans will soar from 38.6 million in 2007 to 71.5 million in 2030. But, says Arnold Eppel, who recently retired as head of the department of aging in Baltimore County, Maryland, "There won't be enough spots for them" in the country's overwhelmed nursing-home system. Appreciating the magnitude of the coming crisis, the U.S. government has begun to respond. Two new initiatives - Nursing Home Diversion and Money Follows the Person - expand subsidies for home elder care, and the Veterans Health Administration has just put in effect its own similar initiative. "The whole trend will be into home care, because nursing homes are too expensive," Eppel says, noting that nursing-home care in the U.S. costs about $85,000 annually per resident.

    In China, senior-care costs are, for the most part, borne by families. For millions of poor Chinese, that's a burden as well as a responsibility, and it unquestionably skews both spending and saving patterns in ways that China needs to change （see Save More, below）. For middle-class and rich Chinese, those costs are a more manageable responsibility but one that nonetheless ripples through their economic decision-making. Still, there are benefits that balance the financial hardship: grandparents tutor young children while Mom and Dad work; they acculturate the youngest generation to the values of family and nation; they provide a sense of cultural continuity that helps bind a society. China needs to make obvious changes to its elder-care system as it becomes a wealthier society, but as millions of U.S. families make the brutal decision about whether to send aging parents into nursing homes, a bigger dose of the Chinese ethos may well be returning to America.

    4. Save More

    You've now heard it so many times, you can probably repeat it in your sleep. President Obama will no doubt make the point publicly when he gets to Beijing: the Chinese need to spend more; they need to consume more; they need - believe it or not - to become more like Americans, for the sake of the global economy.

    And it's all true. But the other side of that equation is that the U.S. needs to save more. For the moment, American households actually are doing so. After the personal-savings rate dipped to zero in 2005, the shock of the economic crisis last year prompted people to snap shut their wallets. Now that it's pouring, in other words, American households have decided to save for a rainy day. The savings rate is currently about 4% and has gone as high as 6% this year.

    In China, the household-savings rate exceeds 20%. It is partly for straightforward policy reasons. As we've seen, wage earners are expected to care for not only their children but also their aging parents. And there is, to date, only the flimsiest of publicly funded health care and pension systems, which increases incentives for individuals to save while they are working. But China, like many other East Asian countries, is a society that has esteemed personal financial prudence for centuries. There is no chance that will change anytime soon, even if the government creates a better social safety net and successfully encourages greater consumer spending.

    Why does the U.S. need to learn a little frugality? Because healthy savings rates, including government and business savings, are one of the surest indicators of a country's long-term financial health. High savings lead, over time, to increased investment, which in turn generates productivity gains, innovation and job growth. In short, savings are the seed corn of a good economic harvest.

    The U.S. government thus needs to get in on the act as well. By running perennial deficits, it is dis-saving, even as households save more. Peter Orszag, Obama's Budget Director, recently called the U.S. budget deficits unsustainable - this year's is $1.4 trillion - and he's right. To date, the U.S. has seemed unable to have what Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels has called an "adult conversation" about the consequences of spending so much more than is taken in. That needs to change. And though Hu Jintao and the rest of the Chinese leadership aren't inclined to lecture visiting Presidents, he might gently hint that Beijing is getting a little nervous about the value of the dollar - which has fallen 15% since March, in large part because of increasing fears that America's debt load is becoming unmanageable.

    That's what happens when you're the world's biggest creditor: you get to drop hints like that, which would be enough by themselves to create international economic havoc if they were ever leaked. （Every time any official in Beijing muses publicly about seeking an alternative to the U.S. dollar for the $2.1 trillion China holds in reserve, currency traders have a heart attack.） If Americans became a bit more like the Chinese - if they saved more and spent less, consistently over time - they wouldn't have to worry about all that.

    5. Look over the Horizon

    The energy that so many outsiders feel when they are in China and that President Obama may see when he is there comes not just from the frenetic activity that is visible everywhere. It comes also from a sense that it's harnessed to something bigger. The government isn't frantically building all this infrastructure just to create make-work jobs. And kids aren't studying themselves sleepless because it's a lot of fun. A few years ago, I interviewed Zhang Xin, a young man from a deeply poor agricultural province in central China. His parents were wheat farmers and lived in a tiny one-room house next to the fields. He had graduated from Tsinghua University - China's MIT - and gotten a job as a software engineer at Huawei, the Cisco of China. His success, Zhang told me one day, had changed his family forever. None of his descendants would "ever work in the wheat fields again. Not my children. Not their children. That life is over." （And neither would his parents. They moved to prosperous Shenzhen, just north of Hong Kong, soon after he started his new job.）

    Multiply that young man's story by millions, and you get a sense of what a forward-looking country this once very backward society has become. A smart American who lived in China for years and who wants to avoid being identified publicly （perhaps because he'd be labeled a "panda hugger," the timeworn epithet tossed at anyone who has anything good to say about China） puts it this way: "China is striving to become what it has not yet become. It is upwardly mobile, consciously, avowedly and - as its track record continues to strengthen - proudly so."

    Proudly so, because as Zhang understood, hard work today means a much better life decades from now for those who will inherit what he helped create. And if that sounds familiar to Americans - marooned, for the moment, in the deepest recession in 26 years - it should.

    11月15日晚上，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)，世界上最年輕國(guó)家之一的最年輕的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，在世界最古老社會(huì)之一的中國(guó)開始了首次訪問。奧巴馬和中國(guó)國(guó)家主席胡錦濤有很多主題可討論；伊朗和朝鮮的核武、中國(guó)軍費(fèi)開支的激增、貿(mào)易的不平衡、及全球氣候的變異。

    但對(duì)美國(guó)來說此次訪問不無尷尬。中國(guó)，盡管背負(fù)了5000年的歷史重?fù)?dān)，已成為全球樂觀，試驗(yàn)和發(fā)展的動(dòng)力；無視全球的經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條，仍亟於成為世界方興未艾的權(quán)力中心。美國(guó)則正好相反，似乎突顯老態(tài)頹唐。美國(guó)整體情緒仍然畏縮，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰沉，紅藍(lán)營(yíng)政治交惡仍纏斗不清。美國(guó)可能是世界上最古老的資本主義國(guó)家，而中國(guó)則是最年輕的。但如奧巴馬對(duì)胡錦濤拋媚撒嬌，偷問："你老兄是如何作到的？" 實(shí)則乃不得已。

    難道世界上唯一但已顯疲憊的超級(jí)大國(guó)負(fù)屐求教於中國(guó)？自然這是一個(gè)不該問的政治問題。中國(guó)是一個(gè)專制國(guó)家，執(zhí)政的共產(chǎn)黨無情地處理任何對(duì)其霸權(quán)的挑戰(zhàn)；但相對(duì)來說，仍是一個(gè)貧窮且面對(duì)許多巨大問題的發(fā)展中國(guó)家，廣面的腐敗和環(huán)境圬染是其首要和次首要問題。不過，這正是美國(guó)應(yīng)謙卑的時(shí)刻，中國(guó)重大國(guó)策正確。如果美國(guó)求教中國(guó)，可能能深入了解美國(guó)自身的正確和錯(cuò)誤之處。這里列有5項(xiàng)中國(guó)成功實(shí)例可茲為教訓(xùn)：

    1. 不折騰的魄力

    今夏某日，英特爾公司的執(zhí)行副總裁馬宏升，在中國(guó)東北周轉(zhuǎn)於約會(huì)之間，當(dāng)駕座快速地穿越新建的公路時(shí)，看到一個(gè)世界上最大建設(shè)之一的項(xiàng)目：即中國(guó)正在建設(shè)中的覆蓋全中國(guó) 10000英里（16,000公里）的高速列車線路網(wǎng)絡(luò)。極眼所盡，大量的混凝土支柱，每 246英尺（75米）一個(gè)接一個(gè)。每一個(gè)覆滿重約 800噸的鋼纜。"我們過去也建東西",馬洛尼不覺得沉思。"但是每次你想做些事情的時(shí)候，鄰避【不是在我家后院 --》環(huán)境正義的利己主義】總是使得百興成廢。在這里，"他開玩笑說，"這里更像鄰逼【在我家后院-》環(huán)境正義利己主義的反義】。處處蓬勃，無處不是，永無歇止。"

    不僅僅是鄰避思想內(nèi)損了美國(guó)。美國(guó)正瀕臨破產(chǎn)，今明年預(yù)算赤字超過 $1萬億美元，2019年持續(xù)高于 $5000億美元。而且似乎也乏匱遠(yuǎn)景和對(duì)未來的投資。

    一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，鑒于它的發(fā)展階段，中國(guó)在高成本設(shè)施上花費(fèi)太多，如高速鐵路（列車）線。不過自個(gè)別基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目評(píng)估和是否是必要的投資上退一步來看，無法忽視中國(guó)前進(jìn)動(dòng)感的能量。沒有外國(guó)人 - 至少在我這5年中沒有碰到一個(gè) - 甚至?xí)�否認(rèn)這點(diǎn)。而中國(guó)人本身也認(rèn)為是這樣。當(dāng) 10月分一條全新的六車道高速公路在上海郊區(qū)啟用，往載民工於城市家鄉(xiāng)的鍾立平說："我不知道為何等了這么久".事實(shí)上，費(fèi)時(shí)兩年 - 大致是在美國(guó)為新公路處理環(huán)境和辦理其他行政許可所費(fèi)的時(shí)間。當(dāng)然是如果一切順利的話。

    "Can-do" 精神沒有直接的翻譯。但勇望直前可概其意。從字面上看，它的意思的確是 "勇往直前".這是中國(guó) - 而且已經(jīng)多年了 - 具有的做事精神，這是明確無誤的。美國(guó)人也知道這句話。是他們發(fā)明的。過去用來定義美國(guó)。

    對(duì)中國(guó)的獨(dú)裁，批評(píng)者會(huì)說這是一個(gè) "為或不為" 的系統(tǒng)，此自有其理。美國(guó)沒有任何人會(huì)認(rèn)為應(yīng)采取中國(guó)政府的獨(dú)斷。美國(guó)并不需要像中國(guó)在 1994年至 2006年間，在湖北省動(dòng)員數(shù)萬人以建立龐大的大壩。（在制衡的取舍上，其中許多方面中國(guó)可以向美國(guó)學(xué)習(xí)） 不必成為載信用卡的共產(chǎn)黨才能了解美國(guó)如何有效地開發(fā)和執(zhí)行雄心勃勃的項(xiàng)目。此可請(qǐng)教詹姆斯麥格雷戈；前美國(guó)商會(huì)在中國(guó)的主席，現(xiàn)為商業(yè)顧問�，F(xiàn)在中國(guó)和美國(guó)間作空中飛人。"我們可以借鑒中國(guó)的是目標(biāo)確定，制定計(jì)劃和整體動(dòng)員",他說。"他們采取舊的五年計(jì)劃，并貫徹執(zhí)行，并非是那些工廠應(yīng)獲得何種原料，何種產(chǎn)品，如何定價(jià)和銷售的微觀細(xì)節(jié)，而是 '我們?nèi)绾卧?5年內(nèi)建立一個(gè)世界級(jí)的硅芯片產(chǎn)業(yè)？我們?nèi)绾纬蔀橐粋�(gè)汽車制造的全球玩家？"

    這是快速增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)家的現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程中一個(gè)高峰。19世紀(jì)末美國(guó)如非如英特爾馬洛尼所說的發(fā)起了全國(guó)動(dòng)員，否則會(huì)是不足為取。那時(shí)的美國(guó)是雄心勃勃的。沒有其他的秘方能再激勵(lì)起過去那熱情和真誠(chéng)地所謂的要進(jìn)步的狂熱。但是，即使是美國(guó)，一個(gè)成熟已發(fā)展的國(guó)家，許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，已缺乏了幾十年的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資�，F(xiàn)況在今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃中仍未被改善。今年年初國(guó)會(huì)通過的 $7878億美元的刺激法案中，只有 $1440億美元直接撥給基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施開支。據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢公司 IHS Global Insight,美國(guó)對(duì)交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的國(guó)家預(yù)算，實(shí)際上在 2009年全面下降 - 這與美國(guó)土木工程師協(xié)會(huì)所建議的，在未來5年內(nèi)，美國(guó)應(yīng)投資 $1.6萬億美元來提升已老化的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，正好相反。

    當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)沖擊的中國(guó)在去年年底反行其道，北京針對(duì)加速中國(guó)大規(guī)�；�礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目，批準(zhǔn)了近兩年半的 $5,850億美元緊急支出。"這錢迅速的注入了經(jīng)濟(jì)",卡內(nèi)基國(guó)際和平基金會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿爾伯特凱德爾指出。

    中國(guó)的成長(zhǎng)并非僅來自橋梁，道路和高速鐵路網(wǎng)的緊急開支。青風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本投資公司北京的合伙人譚家明認(rèn)為，政府正積極幫助資助發(fā)展綠色高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)。舉個(gè)例子：五年內(nèi) 13個(gè)中國(guó)最大的城市將會(huì)具備全電動(dòng)巴士車隊(duì)。" 中國(guó)最終會(huì)成電動(dòng)車輛產(chǎn)業(yè)的主導(dǎo)地位",譚說，"部分原因是中央政府的遠(yuǎn)見和已有的財(cái)力能成就這種局勢(shì)".畢業(yè)於麻省理工學(xué)院和加州大學(xué)伯克利分校的譚又說，他現(xiàn)在北京而不是硅谷處理業(yè)務(wù)，"因?yàn)槲蚁嘈胚@里才是這新產(chǎn)業(yè)的真正孕育之地。中國(guó)已具有了這種能量，動(dòng)力和市場(chǎng)".難道這不是曾幾何時(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本家對(duì)美國(guó)所說的嗎？

    2. 作育英才

    最近的一個(gè)周六下午，一間位於上海城中的好餐館，劉織坐立不安地知道已是他要離別的時(shí)候。所有的家族成員為了這重要時(shí)刻聚集在他身邊：這是劉的仍輕快優(yōu)雅的女族長(zhǎng)曾祖母泠淑珍90歲的生日。但是，劉不得不離開，因?yàn)樗�要上學(xué)。這星期六，就如每個(gè)周六，劉需上兩個(gè)特別班；數(shù)學(xué)和英語。

    劉只有7歲。

    很多外國(guó)人 - 以及相當(dāng)多的中國(guó)人 - 認(rèn)為中國(guó)人對(duì)教育過分執(zhí)著（一語中地）.教育系統(tǒng)強(qiáng)調(diào)死記硬背，快把孩子們逼瘋了 - 不是7歲的孩子應(yīng)該有個(gè)快樂的周末下午嗎？ - 從經(jīng)濟(jì)上講，準(zhǔn)備就業(yè)市場(chǎng)過早；從感情上來說，要作成年教育尚未到時(shí)候。更有甚者，這制度已造成畸形競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，背離根本意義。

    這都是真的 - 但都扯遠(yuǎn)離題了！經(jīng)過幾十年的教育投資，含蓋偏遠(yuǎn)的鄉(xiāng)村農(nóng)民，中國(guó)的識(shí)字率已超過 90%.（美國(guó) 86%）在中國(guó)城市，學(xué)生尤其不只是學(xué)習(xí)閱讀；他們學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)，他們學(xué)科學(xué)。正如前美國(guó)駐北京大使館執(zhí)行使命的副局長(zhǎng)威廉麥卡希爾所說："基本上，他們是對(duì)的，特別是在數(shù)學(xué)和科學(xué)的基本教育上。我們也必須這樣做。他們的孩子往往超越我們的。"

    中國(guó)教育要?jiǎng)?wù)實(shí)，這在美國(guó)也是正卷土重來，但仍可加把勁。中國(guó)人了解，一分耕耘一分收獲。更重要的事，中國(guó)的孩子們很努力。在美國(guó)，據(jù)教育部 2007年的調(diào)查，37% 十年級(jí)的學(xué)生，在2002年每周花在家庭作業(yè)的時(shí)間超過 10小時(shí)。這并不是壞事，事實(shí)上，它明顯優(yōu)于以往的（在1980年只有將近 7%的孩子每周投入相當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)間）.但中國(guó)學(xué)生，據(jù)亞洲協(xié)會(huì) 2006年的報(bào)告，比美國(guó)的同年級(jí)花兩倍的時(shí)間做功課。

    部分原因是家庭的參與。像7歲的劉，不得不離開生日聚會(huì)去上周六特班。其父母都在上班，所以當(dāng)他每天回家，是他的祖父母接他并督促放學(xué)后的作業(yè)。他母親簡(jiǎn)單地說，"這是正常的。他所有的同學(xué)放學(xué)后都是這樣。"

    這是事實(shí)，中國(guó)大企業(yè)的雇主會(huì)告訴你，一般來說，美國(guó)大學(xué)最好的學(xué)生一樣的靈光，但創(chuàng)造性卻遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過中國(guó)的名牌大學(xué)的同行。重要的是 - 受教育的人數(shù) - 左右國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。簡(jiǎn)單地說，聰明，受過良好教育的人越多 - 努力工作的 - 經(jīng)濟(jì)（和公司）受益越多。這是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本家譚對(duì)中國(guó)的電動(dòng)車業(yè)的評(píng)估。一個(gè)私人，開發(fā)電動(dòng)車電池相當(dāng)新的公司 - 比亞迪 - 聘用了驚人的 10000位工程師。

    中國(guó)，批評(píng)者會(huì)指出，還沒有培養(yǎng)出（至少目前還沒有）許多諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)得主。但不要認(rèn)為其具基本勞動(dòng)人口的教育能力不是使其成為世界制造工業(yè)龍頭的關(guān)鍵因素。這不是廉價(jià)的勞動(dòng)力，而是智能勞動(dòng)力。"無論是一線工人或工程師，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)我們的員工素質(zhì)優(yōu)于世界任何地方",上海通用汽車公司高層管理人員尼克賴?yán)�說。 "這一切都始于家庭注重教育的重要性。這給政府施加壓力，以提供完善的制度。"

    而中國(guó)政府以有趣的方式對(duì)這些施加的壓力作出回應(yīng)。它堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為，小學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)和科學(xué)教師必需具有學(xué)科學(xué)位。（而在美國(guó)只有不到一半的八年級(jí)數(shù)學(xué)教師主修數(shù)學(xué)。）有"主任教師"計(jì)劃對(duì)全國(guó)年輕教師提供指導(dǎo)。共同負(fù)責(zé)主持重新設(shè)計(jì)全國(guó)高中數(shù)學(xué)項(xiàng)目委員會(huì)的東中國(guó)上海師范大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)名譽(yù)教授張奠宙說，近期的改革是在反映"強(qiáng)調(diào)實(shí)務(wù)".計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)課程，例如，已被納入了高中學(xué)生的數(shù)學(xué)課程。而中國(guó)目前非常重視青年學(xué)生的英語和其他外國(guó)的教學(xué)。如果你懷疑中國(guó)不斷地調(diào)整其教育系統(tǒng)的意愿對(duì)20年后的未來不會(huì)影響深遠(yuǎn)，有一個(gè)7歲的上海男孩將會(huì)很樂意的與您討論。用英語。

    3. 老有所養(yǎng)

    很難想象美國(guó)和中國(guó)這兩個(gè)社會(huì)對(duì)年老問題不同的處理。我可以保證這第一手資料。我的妻子嶺是上海本地人，上個(gè)月我們第一次看望在美國(guó)療養(yǎng)院我的父親。她后來告訴我震驚的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，"你知道，在中國(guó)，把父母放到療養(yǎng)院是一大恥辱".在中國(guó)這習(xí)性已好幾世紀(jì)：父母養(yǎng)育子女，然后孩子照顧老年的父母。例如，房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商姜西鏖和夫人最近在上海買了一個(gè)新的更大的公寓，他們?nèi)绱俗鞯牟糠衷�因是因�(yàn)樗麄冎�道，幾年后，他的父母�?huì)搬來一起住。他們的父母會(huì)幫忙照顧江的女兒，當(dāng)他們年老，江和夫人將照顧他們。隨著中國(guó)逐漸發(fā)展對(duì)退休人員更好的資助和可靠的社會(huì)保障系統(tǒng) - 已經(jīng)開始 -經(jīng)濟(jì)的必要性會(huì)促使數(shù)代同堂的生活方式慢慢消失。但是，沒有人認(rèn)為，隨著中國(guó)越來越富裕，文化規(guī)范也會(huì)顯著改變。

    在一定程度上，當(dāng)然，美國(guó)三代同堂未少其例。但自20世紀(jì)，美國(guó)特別成為移動(dòng)和無根的社會(huì)。很難照顧三個(gè)時(shí)區(qū)外地父母的生活。

    但是純基于經(jīng)濟(jì)上的需要，在家照顧老人將可能使在美國(guó)卷土重來。在老年人口將從2007年的3860萬升至2030年的7150萬。不過，最近馬利蘭州巴爾的摩縣老齡部門退休的負(fù)責(zé)人阿諾德艾派爾說，"我們將不會(huì)有足夠療養(yǎng)院來收容他們".面對(duì)即將到來的危機(jī)的嚴(yán)重性，美國(guó)政府已經(jīng)開始作出反應(yīng)。兩項(xiàng)新措施 - 護(hù)養(yǎng)院輸導(dǎo)及錢跟人 - 增加家庭照顧老人補(bǔ)助，退伍軍人衛(wèi)生管理局剛也落實(shí)類似的舉措。 "整個(gè)趨勢(shì)將成為家庭護(hù)理，因?yàn)轲B(yǎng)老院費(fèi)用太昂貴",艾派爾說。美國(guó)養(yǎng)老院的成本約為每人每年$8.5萬美元。

    在中國(guó)，老年人護(hù)理費(fèi)用，大多是由家庭承擔(dān)。對(duì)于數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的貧民，作為一種責(zé)任，這是一種負(fù)擔(dān)。這會(huì)無疑地影響到中國(guó)需要改變節(jié)省開支的方式和模式（見節(jié)省更多，下面）.對(duì)于中產(chǎn)階級(jí)和富有的中國(guó)人，這些費(fèi)用是一個(gè)易于掌控的責(zé)任。盡管如此，仍然會(huì)影響到一般的經(jīng)濟(jì)決策。不過，也有利於平衡財(cái)政的困難：祖父母照顧幼兒，而父母親工作。他們重視年輕一代對(duì)家庭和國(guó)家的價(jià)值，而采取了一個(gè)對(duì)社會(huì)合諧有益的文化連續(xù)性方式。對(duì)即將成為一個(gè)富裕的社會(huì)，中國(guó)對(duì)老年人的照顧體系，需要作出明顯的調(diào)整。但在當(dāng)美國(guó)數(shù)百萬家庭面對(duì)是否將年邁的父母送入養(yǎng)老院的泠酷決定時(shí)，中華民族傳統(tǒng)的社會(huì)思潮可能返饋成修正美國(guó)風(fēng)氣的良劑。

    4. 積谷防饑

    這已是老生常談，即使午夜夢(mèng)回也能背出。奧巴馬總統(tǒng)無疑會(huì)在北京公開這觀點(diǎn)：中國(guó)需要促進(jìn)消費(fèi)。他們需要中國(guó)人 - 信不信由你 - 變得更像美國(guó)人，為了全球的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益。（丑陋的美國(guó)人）

    而且這都是事實(shí)。但另一方面是，美國(guó)人需要增加儲(chǔ)蓄。目前，美國(guó)家庭確實(shí)是正在做。2005年個(gè)人儲(chǔ)蓄率降至零。去年的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)沖擊，促使人們鎖緊錢包。現(xiàn)在，已成滂沛成潮，也就是說，美國(guó)家庭已決定積谷防饑。儲(chǔ)蓄率目前約為 4%,今年并一度高至 6%.

    在中國(guó)的家庭儲(chǔ)蓄率超過20%.這與政策有直接原因。正如我們所看到的，打工仔不僅需照顧他們的子女，并且他們的年邁父母。還有就是，迄今為止，只有政府資助的衛(wèi)生保健和養(yǎng)老金制度，增加工作個(gè)人的儲(chǔ)蓄。但中國(guó)，像其他許多東亞國(guó)家，是一個(gè)具有數(shù)百年崇高的個(gè)人審慎理財(cái)?shù)纳鐣?huì)，即使政府設(shè)立好的社會(huì)安全系統(tǒng)，并成功地鼓勵(lì)更多的消費(fèi)支出，也不太可能改其根本。

    為什么美國(guó)需要學(xué)習(xí)節(jié)儉一點(diǎn)？因?yàn)榻】祪?chǔ)蓄率，包括政府和企業(yè)，是一個(gè)國(guó)家的長(zhǎng)期財(cái)政健康的最可靠指標(biāo)之一。高儲(chǔ)蓄率領(lǐng)先，隨著時(shí)間的推移，能增加投資，從而產(chǎn)生生產(chǎn)力，創(chuàng)新和就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)�？傊�，儲(chǔ)蓄是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)豐收的根本。

    美國(guó)政府因此需要同時(shí)策力。常年赤字，即使家庭節(jié)省更多，儲(chǔ)蓄也是負(fù)的。彼得奧爾扎格，奧巴馬的預(yù)算主任，最近稱美國(guó)的預(yù)算赤字不可持續(xù)的 - 今年的1.4萬億美元 - 他是對(duì)的。截至目前，美國(guó)似乎仍無法像印第安那州州長(zhǎng)丹尼爾斯所說的"成人交談"來面對(duì)入不敷出的后果。這需要修正。此外，盡管胡錦濤和中國(guó)其他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人并不傾向于對(duì)來訪的總統(tǒng)說教，他可能會(huì)溫柔地暗示，北京對(duì)美元的價(jià)值還是有點(diǎn)感冒 - 自3月已經(jīng)下降了15%,在很大程度上是因?yàn)樵絹碓綋?dān)心美國(guó)的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)變得無法控制。

    這就是世界上最大債權(quán)國(guó)的效力：這樣的暗示一旦泄漏，就足以造成國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩。（每一次北京官方的任何若有所思公開談?wù)搶で?.1萬億美元儲(chǔ)備的替代美元，就使貨幣交易者們心驚膽顫。）如果美國(guó)人變得更像中國(guó)人 - 節(jié)省多花費(fèi)少，假以時(shí)日 - 他們不用再擔(dān)心這些。

    5. 高瞻遠(yuǎn)矚

    外人在中國(guó)所感到的能量，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)來時(shí)可能也有感，隨處可見的蓬勃泱然并非只是來自於狂熱。

    更可感到更大的發(fā)展正在蘊(yùn)釀。政府極力的打造這些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施并非只為了創(chuàng)造工作。孩子們不睡覺的苦讀是因?yàn)閷?duì)未來樂觀的憧憬。幾年前，我采訪了張欣，一個(gè)來自中國(guó)中部農(nóng)業(yè)大省非常貧窮的年輕人。

    他的雙親是小麥農(nóng)民，以田邊小房為居。他畢業(yè)于清華大學(xué) - 中國(guó)的麻省理工學(xué)院 - 在中國(guó)的思科 - 華為作軟件工程師。張有一天告訴我，他的成功，已經(jīng)永遠(yuǎn)改變了他的家人。他的子孫都不會(huì)"再種麥田了。他的孩子，他孩子的孩子。這種生活已遠(yuǎn)去。" （而且，在開始了他的新工作不久，包栝他的父母，他們都搬到香港北部的繁榮深圳。）

    將年輕人的故事以數(shù)百萬計(jì)，你會(huì)意識(shí)到這個(gè)曾經(jīng)非常落后的社會(huì)已經(jīng)蛻變成極具前瞻的國(guó)家。一位在中國(guó)生活多年不想被公開（因?yàn)椴幌氡还嗌?quot;熊貓擁抱者"- 親中國(guó)的老綽號(hào)）聰明的美國(guó)人說："中國(guó)正努力的在成其大成。機(jī)動(dòng)地向上，自覺，求是 - 處顯成果，并自豪。"

    是這樣的自豪。因?yàn)閺埩私�，現(xiàn)在的辛勤工作正是在為幾十年后更美好的未來筑基。如果美國(guó)人聽來感到熟悉 - 孤芳自賞，就目前而言，處在近26年來最嚴(yán)重的蕭條 - 此乃必然。